The impact of energy efficiency is driving a decrease in the annual load forecast, according to Tom Falin, PJM manager – Resource Adequacy, during a presentation on load forecast modeling changes at the Markets and Reliability Committee meeting October 1.
He explained that a changed view of weather history partially offset the energy efficiency-driven decrease. The official load forecast for next year will not be final until late December.
The new modeling will result in an estimated 2.6 percent lower load forecast for 2018 from the 2015 forecast. Two of the biggest impacts to the forecast are factoring in the reduction of load due to energy efficiency as well as looking at the last 20 years of weather history, instead of 40 years.
Energy efficiency - from institutional programs to individual consumer use of efficient appliances – has reached a level that can be measured in terms of overall power use. PJM is using data from the Energy Information Administration as well as data from the electric distribution companies on their own energy efficiency saturation.
Falin reminded the committee that until December new inputs will be added to the forecast such as the most current economic data, information from this past summer’s weather and metered loads and any new information from the electric distribution companies on energy efficiency saturation.
The Planning Committee will vote on the new load forecasting methodology on October 8.