MRC Approves Load Forecast Model; EE Changes moved to December MRC

The Markets and Reliability Committee at its November 19 meeting approved an update of the PJM load forecast model. The vote was by acclamation, with zero “no” votes.

The MRC decided, however, to pursue further discussion on proposed manual revisions which reflect energy efficiency in the peak load forecast.  There will be at least one more special MRC session, tentatively scheduled for December 9, to examine the revisions before the December MRC meeting.

Tom Falin, manager – Resource Adequacy Planning, presented the changes to the load forecasting model, which include general housekeeping changes identified as part of the periodic review.

These include:

  • Adding variables to account for trends in equipment/appliance saturation and efficiency
  • Revised weather variables
  • Updated economic area/weather station assignments to zones
  • Revised weather normalization procedure

At the request of the Planning Committee, changes regarding distributed solar generation in the load forecast model were removed and will be considered for endorsement at the December MRC meeting.

PJM will review the megawatt impact of the solar generation changes at the November 30 Load Analysis Subcommittee meeting.

Falin said PJM will publish a white paper on the forecast model in 2016 providing background and greater detail on the new forecast model.

Jeff Bastian, manager – Capacity Market Operations, reviewed proposed manual revisions to accommodate EE resources in the capacity market when EE is incorporated into the peak load forecast.

Stakeholders asked to delay consideration of the manual revisions to further examine the updates’ impact on energy efficiency resource participation in the PJM capacity market. These include:

  • Clearing of energy efficiency resources in RPM auctions
  • Auction participation eligibility of energy efficiency resources
  • Installation period of energy efficiency measures relative to forecast used in auction
  • Commitment of energy efficiency resources in fixed resource requirement capacity plans

PJM incorporated stakeholder concerns from previous special MRC sessions into the latest proposal (see pages 2-3).