PJM Issues Mid-year Load Update

PJM released its mid-year update of the PJM load forecast.  The load forecast uses a number of scenarios to predict load for the current year and three years ahead.

The update provides capacity market participants an early indication of next year’s load forecast to be released in January 2018. It is for informational purposes only.  The forecast contains summer coincident peak forecasts for each PJM zone, locational deliverability area and the entire PJM region.

This report forecasts an RTO-wide drop in megawatts in delivery year 2020/2021 from 153,684 to 152,727 MW.

The change is related to a weaker economic outlook which is offset slightly by changes to assumptions about end-use equipment saturation and the assumption that the Clean Power Plan will not be implemented.

Forecasts are supplied for the current and three upcoming delivery years.  The update includes the following changes from the load forecast released in January 2017:

  • Uses the Moody’s Analytics’ May 2017 economic forecast release
  • Includes benchmarking of end-use equipment indexes to state data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Residential Energy Consumption Survey
  • Uses end-use equipment indexes, based on the EIA’s 2016 “No CPP” reference case
  • Uses a weather simulation period of 1994-2016.

Any questions about the load forecast update should be directed to load_analysis_team@pjm.com.