PJM presents 2018 load forecast preview to PC

Stakeholders heard PJM’s preliminary 2018 Load Forecast results and report at the Planning Committee meeting Dec. 14.

John Reynolds, senior lead economic analyst – Resource Adequacy Planning, gave the overview of the load forecast results and the preview of the accompanying report, which will be released at the end of December.

The report looks at long-term forecasts of peak loads, net energy, load management and distributed solar generation for each PJM zone, region and locational deliverability area, and the total RTO.

The winter and summer peak load growth rates are expected to be 0.4 percent through 2028. That ranges from -0.2 in BGE and Atlantic Electric to the highest growth rate of 0.8 (summer) in Dominion.

Reynolds said there are two forecast adjustments – a growth in data centers in Dominion and a growth of fracking load in APS. There is one late addition as well – a small growth in non-retail behind-the-meter generation. Reynolds said the growth is smaller than expected.

Criteria Used
Estimation Period January 1998 through August 2017
Weather Simulation 1994 to 2016 299 scenarios
Economics Moody’s Analytics September 2017
Equipment Indices Itron’s 2017 release Does not include Clean Power Plan
IHS Solar Forecast Zonal and peak allocation by PJM

 

PJM RTO Summer Forecast
2021 Comparison
2017 Forecast to 2018 Prelim Down 0.7 percent
2023 Comparison
2017 Forecast to 2018 Prelim Down 0.1 percent
PJM RTO Winter Forecast
2020/21 Comparison
2017 Forecast to 2018 Prelim Unchanged
2022/23 Comparison
2017 Forecast to 2018 Prelim Up 0.4 percent

A pair of first reads generated stakeholder discussions.

Asanga Perera, manager – Market Simulation, reviewed a problem statement related to market efficiency analysis procedures.

Since the implementation of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Order 1000, PJM has conducted multiple market efficiency cycles. In the course of those cycles, PJM also discovered opportunities for process improvements. PJM proposes that this issue be addressed at the RTEP Market Efficiency Process Enhancement Task Force.

Sue Glatz, director – Infrastructure Planning, presented a first read of proposed changes to Manual 14F: Competitive Planning Process and the PJM Operating Agreement on cost containment. Stakeholders and PJM developed the proposed changes during special Planning Committee sessions.

The changes provide clarity of what PJM will require of entities if proposing a cost cap commitment, how PJM will consider cost cap commitments in project evaluations for competitive proposals and what PJM will include in the Designated Entity Agreement if cost cap commitment is accepted.

Per the new manual language, cost cap proposals submitted as part of a competitive solicitation for any PJM proposal window would be limited to only those costs associated with bringing the project into service (e.g., construction costs, siting costs and other permitting and testing costs).

Jerry Bell, senior lead engineer – Resource Adequacy Planning, reviewed information on potential changes for awarding capacity interconnection rights to hybrid wind/solar generation facilities (generators who wish to add solar to their wind facilities).

Bell said this research was to set the interconnection study limits, and the generators would be taking the risk. The initial wind production profile and a wind unit’s actual capacity factor may be better or worse than depicted, depending on its location. Performance increase is only for the summer period; solar panels will most likely not augment the output during winter peak hours.

PJM presented an update on the Order 1000 proposal fees collected from competitive windows.  As part of the current tiered proposal, which the FERC accepted in February 2016, PJM made the commitment to monitor the fee collections and costs over a two-year period. PJM presented a chart (Page 4) showing that the process largely balances out. PJM is not planning to make any changes to the process now and will revisit it next year.

In the latter part of the meeting, leading into the Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee meeting, a stakeholder gave an informational presentation on its view of planning process improvements for baseline and supplemental projects

Other Committee Business/Updates