PJM Summer Outlook

PJM expects to have adequate generation resources for the forecasted peak conditions this summer,  when usage could push power consumption to as high as 155,544 megawatts (MW).

 To meet demand, PJM has available 177,650 MW of installed generation capacity and an estimated 8,543 MW of demand response and energy efficiency. The installed generation capacity includes all generators that have committed to serve PJM load through the Reliability Pricing Model auctions or the fixed resource requirement alternative.  PJM’s projected reserve margin is 20.8 percent; the required reserve margin is 15.6 percent.

“We expect to have sufficient power to keep air conditioners and all electrical devices running this summer,” said Michael J. Kormos, executive vice president – Operations. “Summer can be the real test of our system because of heavy use of air conditioning across the 13-state region. This is why we work year-round to ensure that power resources are in place to meet consumer demand.”

Preliminary forecasted peak conditions for the summer are:

  • Forecast Load Total: 155,544 MW
  • Demand Response and Energy Efficiency: 8,543 MW (est.)
  • Forecast Load Less Demand Response: 147,001 MW
  • Installed Generation Capacity: 177,650 MW
  • Reserve Margin: 30,649 MW
  • Required Reserve Margin: 6 percent
  • Reserve Margin: 8 percent

Impact, Concerns and Position

Since the summer of 2014, PJM has added various transmission enhancements to the bulk system, including new 230 kV and 138 kV transmission lines, the conversion of an existing transmission line from 138 kV to 230 kV, and upgraded 500/230 kV transformers.  In addition, PJM will refit approximately 20 69 kV, 138 kV and 345 kV transmission lines with higher-rated transmission conductors.

If PJM experiences abnormal equipment unavailability and/or unusual weather conditions, emergency procedures may be necessary.  Likewise, if neighboring systems experience abnormal conditions, PJM may need to invoke emergency procedures to provide assistance to them.

PJM also participates in inter-regional study groups that publish summer studies for the larger North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC); NERC will issue its 2015 Summer Assessment report detailing expected conditions in North America by May 31.