Planning Committee Reviews Preliminary Load Forecast

A look at what the PJM planning process might be going forward was at the heart of the Planning Committee meeting on Dec. 15.

In addition to the preliminary 2017 Load Forecast Report and a problem statement on winter season resource adequacy and capacity requirements, PJM presented a number of draft initiatives designed to improve the planning process.

Load Forecast Report

 The preliminary load forecasting report reflects the recent trend of lower load growth in PJM, a trend reflected across t the nation.

To develop the forecast, PJM used an estimation period of January 1998 through August 2016 to run scenarios. PJM also ran 299 weather scenarios, using simulations from 1993 through 2015. PJM takes the median value and uses the 90th percentile as the extreme.

PJM is scheduled to publish the final report the last week of December. The final report will contain spreadsheets with a statistical appendix and further details.

PJM looked at 2020 and 2022 as its sample forecast years – 2020 is the next year for the base residual auction and 2022 is the year used in the Regional Transmission Expansion Process study.

Preliminary forecasts (slides 4 and 7)

2020 Comparison 2016 Forecast to 2017 Preliminary Down 2.1 percent
2022 Comparison 2016 Forecast to 2017 Preliminary Down 2.9 percent
2020/21 Comparison 2016 Forecast to 2017 Preliminary Down 2.6 percent
2022/23 Comparison 2016 Forecast to 2017 Preliminary Down 3.4 percent

Winter Resource Adequacy

The committee also discussed a problem statement regarding winter season resource adequacy and capacity requirements. The Markets and Reliability Committee approved the problem statement on Nov. 17.

The need to update the load forecasting arises from the changing PJM resource mix, changing load patterns and recent operational experiences during winter periods.

Planning Process Reports

PJM presented ongoing work from the Designated Entity Design Standards Task Force. The task force is working toward developing minimum engineering design standards, which would take geography and local needs (such as noise level or space requirements) into  project considerations.

The design standards would apply to projects that are competitively solicited and address transmission lines, substations, system protection and control design/coordination.

The task force also  reviewed draft guidelines for market efficiency project selection.  The guidelines will examine congestion mitigation and how each market efficiency proposal would relieve one or more economic constraints.

The task force  would also re-examine the benefit-cost ratio calculations (slides 25-30) and the cost estimate review. If a proposal costs in excess of $50 million, PJM will have an independent cost review.

The committee deferred endorsing changes to Manual 14C: Generation and Transmission Interconnection Facility Construction (process recommendations for energizing new or modified tie lines).