Load Forecasting Updates at Planning Committee


PJM presented two load forecasting-related updates at the Planning Committee meeting on Sept. 14 —
a manual change and the preliminary Installed Reserve Margin study.

The conforming updates to Manual 19: Load Forecasting and Analysis clarify when load drop estimates are produced and the definitions of calculations used. These changes are a result of the  transition to Capacity Performance.

PJM will revise the method used to forecast price responsive demand, making it consistent with the current demand response forecast method.  None of the changes will impact current processes.

The 2017 Installed Reserve Margin study’s preliminary results re-set the IRM for 2018/19, 2019/20, 2020/21 and establish initial IRM for 2021/22. PJM will present the final report for a vote at the October Planning Committee.

There is a drop in the weighted average equivalent demand forced outage (EFORd) rate projected for 2021. This is due to the large amount of deactivations with high EFORd (7,150 megawatts with 14.56 percent weighted average EFORd) and a large amount of additions with low EFORd (16,980 MW with 4.42 percent weighted average EFORd). EFORd is the portion of time a unit is in demand but is unavailable due to a forced outage.

PJM also continued education on grid resilience in system planning and how PJM is evaluating the simulation results of potential triggering events. The events that PJM has been looking at include, but are not limit to, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s definition of “extreme events:”

  • NERC TPL-001-4 “Extreme” event examples
  • Loss of all lines in a right-of-way
  • Loss of a substation
  • Loss of two generating stations
  • Severe weather
  • Successful cyber attach
  • Shutdown of nuclear power plant(s)
  • Gas/Electric Interface

Other Committee Business

  • Endorsement of updates to Manual 14A: Generation and Transmission Interconnection Process
  • First read for updates to Manual 14B: Regional Transmission Planning Process

Informational Updates

PJM Presents Smaller Projects to TEAC 

PJM presented a number of baseline solutions to the Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee on Sept. 14 in anticipation of recommending them to the PJM Board in October. They would be included in the Regional Transmission Expansion Plan.

The projects total nearly $68 million; the largest is a $41 million project in Dominion, rebuilds 230 kilovolt lines and raises the rating on a 500 kV line.

PJM reviewed upgrades that address issues identified in the 2017 RTEP, including thermal problems, short circuit problems and transmission owner criteria issues.

PJM found 190 reliability criteria violations in the RTEP proposal window, which closed Aug. 25.  Of the 190 identified flowgates: 40 were included in the window.  There were 150 flowgates excluded from the window because they were considered immediate-need projects and projects less than 200 kV.

As part of its reliability analysis, PJM is conducting a series of gas-electric contingency studies.

Market Efficiency

PJM provided an update on market efficiency projects under study in the 2017 RTEP.

Market efficiency analysis of Reliability Pricing Model projects and interregional projects is 90 percent complete and analysis of the PPL projects is in progress.  PJM will analyze remaining market efficiency proposals after the review of those in the PPL transmission zone. All other regional projects will follow, with a February 2018 target completion date for everything.

PJM also announced an abbreviated market efficiency proposal window  to solicit solutions to address the Tanners Creek – Dearborn 345 kV thermal constraint. The window will close on Sept. 28 at 11:59 p.m. (Eastern). Members with questions should go to the new Planning Community.