PJM has begun its annual review of proposed Large Load adjustments to determine the impact to PJM’s 2027 Long-Term Load Forecast, using updated guidelines designed to better account for how likely proposed projects are to materialize.
The review comes as electricity demand is growing rapidly across the PJM region, driven largely by data centers and other large electricity users. Understanding how much of that projected demand will actually develop, and when, is critical to planning for the generation and transmission infrastructure needed to reliably serve customers.
On Tuesday, 12 utilities presented their proposals to PJM’s Load Analysis Subcommittee. The requests primarily cover data centers but can also include other high-use electricity customers. Over the coming weeks, PJM will evaluate those submissions alongside other information about expected demand growth.
PJM does not have a load interconnection queue and relies on Load Serving Entities to submit Large Load adjustments to the Long-Term Load Forecast. PJM has standardized the submission process to require utilities to provide additional information to PJM including contract status to determine firm commitments.
For the first time, PJM also has retained an independent consultant, Charles River Associates, to assess data center demand trends and the factors that could affect future growth. That analysis will consider issues including artificial intelligence adoption and the evolution of the digital economy, as well as potential constraints involving power, materials and regional development. Charles River Associates will present its findings in October.
In November, PJM will share how it is incorporating all of this information into a final load adjustment for the 2027 Long-Term Load Forecast, which will be published in January.
Earlier this year, PJM implemented changes to its load forecast adjustment guidelines (PDF) to further detail how Large Load adjustments would be treated.
In July, when PJM started soliciting submissions, it also released a new template for requesters to provide their data.
Submitters were required to give their Relevant Electric Retail Regulatory Authority a chance to provide feedback on their load adjustment proposals and to ask their Large Load customers whether they were duplicating requests to connect elsewhere.
Near-term forecast years are considered to be needing “firm” commitments, such as an Electric Service Obligation or Construction Commitment, while longer-term projects will be considered “non-firm” and have greater uncertainty.
Presenting Tuesday were Dominion Energy, NOVEC, Rappahannock, ODEC, PPL, AEP, Duquesne, FirstEnergy, Exelon, AES, Duke and PSEG (PDFs).