PJM Releases Load Forecast Projections

• Low load growth trend continues

• Distributed solar and energy efficiency have grown

PJM has released the 2019 Load Forecast Report, which contains projections of peak load, net energy, load management, and distributed solar generation for each PJM zone and the RTO as a whole.  Forecasts span the years 2019 through 2034. PJM presented the preliminary report previously at the Load Analysis Subcommittee.

The forecast shows that, for years of interest, both summer and winter forecasts are down at least 0.4 percent from last year’s forecasts.

John Reynolds, senior lead economic analyst – Resource Adequacy Planning, said that because the Base Residual Auction will be delayed in 2019 (from May until August) for possible reevaluations to the capacity auction construct, PJM staff will develop a second load forecast just for the auction that would include approved peak-shaving adjustments.

That forecast is expected in mid-March 2019. What PJM released on Thursday, however, does not include any of that work.

Some Things to Note:

With distributed solar and energy efficiency already having ramped up over the past decade, those factors aren’t expected to slow load growth as much as in past years (see: Exploring PJM: Energy Efficiency in Load Forecasting).

At the same time, higher efficiency in commercial ventilation and lighting, along with increased residential fuel-switching from electric to natural gas appliances, will weigh on long-term growth (see Weather, EE Influence Load Forecasting).