PJM Reviews Next Steps in Fuel Security

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PJM answered stakeholder questions and reviewed the next steps of its Fuel Security Analysis at a special session of the Markets & Reliability Committee meeting Dec. 20.

PJM continued to underscore that, while there is no imminent threat to the grid, fuel security is an important component of ensuring reliability – especially if multiple risks come to fruition.

This report is a more detailed explanation of the approach and assumptions than the preliminary report issued in November. PJM wants to use the analysis to further inform the in-depth stakeholder discussions scheduled for 2019.

Asanga Perera, manager – Advanced Analytics, said stakeholders had asked for more information on scenario load shed details. He presented several charts with locational load shed observations, breaking the numbers down for hours, total megawatt hours and designating them as locational or multi-area.

Dave Souder, senior director – Operations Planning, said PJM described the accelerated retirement transmission models as “simplistic, but realistic,” limiting the amount of transfers as resources became unavailable.

PJM will have the visualizations for all 324 scenarios available to stakeholders by mid-January. The technical appendix already contains descriptions of seven different scenarios.

In looking at 324 scenarios, PJM found that key elements such as availability of non-firm gas, oil deliverability for purposes of replenishing on-site oil tanks, pipeline design, reserve level and method of dispatch became increasingly important as the system comes under more stress.

In particular, the combination of the following factors contributes to potential load shed events:

  • The level of retirements and replacements
  • The level of non-firm gas availability
  • The ability to replenish oil supplies
  • The location, magnitude and duration of pipeline disruption
  • Pipeline configuration

In addition to working with stakeholders on approving a problem statement, issue charge and a potential solution as part of Phase 2 efforts, PJM will continue to work with key agencies within the federal government and impacted industries to further define physical and cyber threat fuel security scenarios as part of Phase 3 efforts.